Political Capital Doesn't Have Candlesticks

In real trading, candlesticks are the most amazing and universal way to read a price chart. They show the absolute minimum and maximum price over a time period, as well as the open and close. All my best trades happen at the edges of candlesticks, betting on a market reversal.

Because I've trained my mind on candlesticks for so long,¹ I presumed politics would follow the same logic. And hence, for the longest time, I've approached my activity and choices with this in mind. However, this recently caused me considerable stress when putting in a morning of work in a Stellar docs PR.

The premise of candles, aside from support and resistance, is timing: it's getting the absolute best price you can in the timeframe provided. For instance, in my short BTC trade off the second M top, I had a cover at what became about 90% of the maximum monthly drawdown.

That month actually closed really high (even if it was red) compared to my exit. It would've taken over 5 months to get back to my exit point at the bottom of that candle, representing an initial loss of ~$4.5k (34%) and a carrying interest cost of ~$800–1200 if held to the same point. Approximate numbers.

The timing is a lot more obvious in minute or 5-minute candles. You can see quite easily when the candle would've been at the best execution point. And if you miss it, it's right there.

Anyway, I thought this would also exist in politics. The speech word for it is kairos. It's how the timing of a message affects its delivery.

This Greek concept still matters, but it's really not as granular as extremes in a candle. That is to say that relationships (the basis of politics) don't really exhibit those same wild swings of volatility most of the time. Especially not the professional ones that you need to optimize.

It's much more gradual, dare I say linear. And it's separate from trust (which compounds). To put it bluntly, it's substantially like a line graph.

You can see the price changing over time, and it's clear where the turning points happen. But whether you do something or make remarks an hour or so earlier or later? It really doesn't matter.